Friday, June 27, 2014

NBA Lifetime PER

I always like looking into PER in the NBA and seeing how the players stack up.  This week I looked deeper into career PER and how the historical greats compare to each other.  A significant issue with this is that the NBA did not start tracking steals and blocks until 1973 and turnovers until 1977.  Therefore, you can compare older players against each other, but you are missing a big piece of who they were, especially talking about someone like Russell who blocked a lot of shots.  So, when we look at these, keep in mind that the players who were great before 1973 are not getting a fair comparison.  As a recap, the PER basically takes all the good things a player does, subtracts the bad things, and divides by minutes played.  That's an over-simplification, but a good summary.  It says how productive players are, how much they do to help win.

NBA top 40 all-time:
















































Lebron is right on Jordan's heals, but will probably start to decline slowly going forward; I doubt he can finish #1.  Robinson is a surprise.  Bob Pettit is a huge surprise.  Good results for Dirk.  Great results for your boy Dwyane Wade.  Bill Russell is no where to be found because he didn't score, shot a low percentage from field and line, and we don't have record of his blocks/steals.  This list makes sense in a lot of ways.  Kareem played so long his numbers dropped near the end.  Barkley dominated the stat sheet.  West, Robertson, and Baylor played before the steals/blocks categories.

For fun, here is the ABA top 10 list, with ABA games only counting in the totals:
















The Doctor was operating in full flight!

S

Wednesday, June 25, 2014

Rangers Turnover

Watching the Rangers slog to another loss last night, I thought about how recently they were considered a model franchise after appearing in 2 consecutive world series.  I was stunned to go through in my head that we had a team in the WS in 2011 which is now almost completely turned over.  Do we have much to show for all these losses?  Here are the primary 17 players for that team:

1B - Michael Young - left in free agency, then retired
2B - Ian Kinsler - traded
SS - Elvis Andrus - still here
3B - Adrian Beltre - still here
C - Mike Napoli - left in free agency
LF - David Murphy - left in free agency
CF - Josh Hamilton - left in free agency
RF - Nelson Cruz - left in free agency
UT - Craig Gentry - left in free agency
P - C.J. Wilson - left in free agency
P - Colby Lewis - still here
P - Matt Harrison - on DL
P - Derek Holland - on DL
P - Alexi Ogando - on DL
P - Neftali Feliz - in AAA
P - Mike Adams - left in free agency
P - Scott Feldman - left in free agency

The best team in franchise history, less than 3 years later, completely turned over or decimated by injury.  And, we've traded a slew of top prospects over the last 3 years for pennant races.  Amazing how quickly things can turn.  Just sickening to look this over and see where we are.  So, has Jon Daniels blown it, or he is a victim of bad circumstances?  Most of the moves looked OK at the time and the injuries are almost unprecedented.  He will probably get a pass this year and everyone will wait to see how it looks in 2015.

S

Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Kershaw's No-No

I guess we would be remiss if we didn't record something about Clayton Kershaw's amazing performance last Wednesday.  According to Bill James' formula, it was the 2nd greatest start by a pitcher in the last 100 years, trailing only fellow DFW-native Kerry Wood's 1998 1-hitter with 20 K's.  Kershaw struck out 15 with no walks, the first no-hitter ever to reach that many K's without a walk.  And, despite the 15 K's, he only needed 107 pitches, reaching 2 balls on 11 batters and 3 balls on only one.  He did not throw a ball to any of the final 6 hitters.  We can only hope that Kershaw maintains his health so we get to watch these next 5-7 years of him in full force.

S

Monday, June 23, 2014

(Very) Early Committment

Our Allen Eagle right tackle, Greg Little made national news this week by committing to Texas A&M before the start of his junior year.  Little has already been called the top overall prospect for the 2016 class, but committing as an incoming junior?  Sumlin is just smoking hot on the recruiting trail, but can he win without JFF?

S

Spurs Revisited

Because I was on vacation, I missed the aftermath of the Spurs' victory.  It was strangely satisfying to me to see this group climb the mountain again.  To watch such beautiful basketball and to see it all come full circle from the brutal game of the Pistons/Knicks era.  Also nice to hear some of the tributes to Mike Dantoni from whom Popovich pilfered much of his current system.  I mean, wasn't it just fun to watch basketball at that level of quality?  We hated the NBA for years, but the Suns and now Spurs proved what could be done with the right rules in place and the right players on the court.  The game we love; movement, skill, unselfishness, shooting, find the right guy, make the right pass, pace.  As Simmons pointed out, Popovich now firmly on the NBA coaching Mt. Rushmore with Auerbach, Jackson, Riley, the 4 of them with 29 championships!  It was also pointed out in several places that the Spurs are almost completely an international team.  Hardly an American AAU player to be found on that roster.  Makes you think.

S

Eagle Stadium

The final report is in and it's as ugly as feared.  The stadium was found to have design deficiencies in several major areas, including retaining walls, concourse framing, durability, press box support, press box structure, and scoreboard support.  The district is hoping to have repairs under way by late July with an optimistic 10 month time frame.  In short, it's a total and complete failure of design, labor, and oversight and so hard to comprehend how it could happen in this day and age.  I still don't know whether the architect and contractor will cough up the money willingly or if we'll be in court for years.

www.allenisd.org/cms/lib/TX01001197/Centricity/Domain/38/Nelson%20Forensics%20-%20AHS%20Stadium%206-19-14.pdf

S

Modano HOF 2014

I know next to nothing about hockey, but I was happy with the news today that Mike Modano was elected to the HOF on the first ballot.  My very first experience with big-time hockey came when I went to see the new hot team in town, the Stars, smack in the middle of Modano's prime.  Even though I had nothing to compare, it took me about 5 seconds to figure out that the most dynamic, fastest, most athletic player on the ice was Modano, who attacked at will and skated in between and all around the opponents.  I sat close to the ice that night, and he was a blur, fast and powerful, and like most sports that combination makes the difference.  Also good to know that by all reports he is one of the nicest and down to earth big-time athletes around.

S

Sunday, June 15, 2014

US OPEN

Kaymer was just fantastic and made the US Open a snooze fest for everyone.  I am already cringing at the media pundits blaming low TV ratings on a lack roid boy Woods. This is just a US Open was dominated by a great week of golf.

A recent trend in Majors has been blow-outs

  • 2014 Kaymer US Open 8 Strokes
  • 2012 PGA Rory 8 Strokes Record
  • 2011 US Open Rory 8 Strokes. 
  • 2010 British Oosthuizen 7 Strokes


Woods Dominance:

  • 2000 US Woods 15 Strokes.Record
  • 2000 British Woods 8 Strokes
  • 1997 Masters 12 Strokes. Record


Jack

  • 1965 Masters 9 Strokes.
  • 1980 PGA 7 Strokes
J


Friday, June 13, 2014

Elbow Problems All Hail Greg Maddux.

When you asked me my opinion about the number of elbow injuries in baseball, I was not prepared to answer, but the more I the read into the problem, the more I believe my initial thoughts. We are teaching kids that can create high arm speed to throw with finger pressure to generate a controlled movement on the baseball.  The finger pressure is creating to much tension in the problematic ligament.

The culprit:   Ulnar Collateral ligament damage
Cause-The torque and extension of the ligament is damaging the ligament.

 I decided to research the subject and was shocked at the number of articles. A cause and effect type situation is evident, but I could not find any scientific reasoning. We know a couple of things to be factual, the human body and our ligaments can handle only so much tension before they break.

The most common reasoning in the media articles is overuse. Normally these articles blame the high school or select team coaches. The orthos are making comments about damage at youth due to growth plates and innings pitched.
 
Some doctors promote that kids need to rest their arms for longer periods, some even say it should be up to 4 months a year. For a comparison, a broken bone heals in six weeks, so I think this theory is based on something other than science.

I read comments from Dr. Jobe and he is still supporting that people should not throw at 100% of ability. I agree with him if that the person can generate enough arm speed to tear the ligament, Who am I to argue with a specialist, but I do believe that some guys have always been throwing at 100% and this is a recent epidemic, so I keep looking.  The only time people stop throwing hard is when they get to the professional level and are manipulating the ball.

None of these really explain why half of Major league pitchers have this problem.  We need the cause!

After studying and experimenting with finger pressure while throwing, I am leaning more toward my theory for the cause.  My theory is that using the modern form of finger pressure to create ball movement with arm speed is physically not possible. The tightening of certain fingers has direct relationships with certain ligaments and tendons. Basically it is not natural and the ulnar collateral ligament is exploding.
I have personal experience with this injury. I blew my ligament out and created enough torque that the bone attached to the ULC broke completely off.  I was in my late 40's when I let go of that football and my arm immediately started throbbing.  The doctor told me that I could get the Tommy John surgery, but why bother when I have no reason to throw anything with that velocity.  He also made an interesting comment that seems credible.  He said that people with explosive fast twitch muscles and hyper flexible ligaments can create ligament damage through out the body.

The blame in my opinion is that we are teaching kids that throw hard an unnatural practice. This is an example of when our body cannot handle the PSI of the movement. There will always be super freaks that can overcome this movement, but with a rash of half of the pitchers in medical care someone needs to address the situation.

j.






Wednesday, June 11, 2014

US OPEN - A time to see who can handle failure.

With the US Open starting tomorrow, I worry about both of my favorites players.

Before, I get into the true golf comments I want to share a story from last month at the golf course.

I was glad that David went through the qualifying events and is playing in the National Championship. He has been on an upward trend in the last month, so anything can happen if that flat stick gets hot. If he wins, I know that I will be one of many that will be tearing up.

Phil is considered a favorite in most betting odds. Vegas has him at 13/1 and most other around the same which is second to only Rory at 10/1.

Phil recently commented that this was the most important major he will ever play. I am not much in hyperbole, but at his age, the medical issues he has lived through during the last decade and most concerning the Federal SEC investigation into trading back in 2011.  Because of this, I think this feeling of importance may have some truth to it for Lefty.

His game has been down this year, which suggest age and the lack of concentration is having a huge impact. The thing about Phil is that if he can just get in contention on Saturday anything could happen.  I see he will be using the claw grip this week, which is a good thing in my mind.  The pencil or claw is definitely a stroke that is stable on really quick greens.

Rory is still the most talented golfer in the world and in my opinion it isn't close with Phil and Tiger aging mentally and physically. His ability to bomb the ball and hit every shot is unmatched when you include his emotionally stability. He doesn't have Tiger's putting stroke or Phil's arsenal around the green, but his is a birdie machine. He hits more shots close than anyone, that I have seen since Johnny Miller and Greg Norman.
It is ashamed that Nike wasted a year and a half of his life by not being able to produce clubs to match his swing like Titleist did.  The win a few weeks ago was his first in 18 Months in Europe, a ridiculous delay for someone that makes this many birdies.

My Favorites.

  • Rory- If it rains we could see a show. 
  • Jimmy Walker- Best player all year and he can putt the lights out. 
  • Jason Day- I really hope his wrist has been healthy enough for him to get his game in order.
  • Ian Poulter- He likes the stage and can put the fast greens. 
  • Dustin Johnson- He should have won two already.  That collapse at Pebble can only be a learning experience. 
  • Martin Kaymer- He seems back to normal.
The rest I think can win:

  • Sergio- We heard for years about Westwood, but Sergio is better ball striker and if he can control his putts.  I think it would be great if he won after the ridicule and mental torture he has brought upon himself.
  • Pretty Boy Scott- He deserves to be number one in the world. He is classy and so consistent, but I worry about his short game. 
  • Phil - He is the US Open commander in chief, when he is focused he can win anywhere and especially at Pinehurst. 
  • Bubba- If he can putt these greens and maintain focus, he could win anything. Besides who is more fun to watch that Bubba. 


Tuesday, June 10, 2014

NBA

Watching the Spurs is brutal for me and I cannot make myself change. The Spurs win using a scheme that I would attempt to coach if I had the opportunity. 

I am ashamed to admit that I think I pull for the Heat only because I feel that Duncan has built a career of being considered one the greatest of all time because of the team scheme he plays within. I do not see the talent that should have his name mentioned with the top players of all time.  He is good offensive center and a good defensive power forward and durable.  For the record, he is a center no matter what they spew.  He tried to guard Shaq and Hakeem, but he never followed Dirk around the court. 

The are the antithesis of the Thunder. 
 They make the most of each players talent and rarely get out of position. 

I want to scream watching the Thunder and Westbrook's effect on his teammates. One man cannot win games, but one selfish point guard can sure lose games.  The talent level at OKC is much ahead of the Heat and Spurs, but the difference is that Westbrook doesn't understand what James does for his teammates, nor what every Spur has done for a decade. 

j


The Belmont

I did pick the winner in the Derby, but I was more interested in the comments made by the owner of California Chrome about requiring other horses to run multiple races.

I really do not know where I side on this issue of making the horses run in more than just the Belmont.

Even though I agree in principle I agree with him, I would never ask the other horses to run if they cannot win or risk injury.

A triple crown has happened in past and will happen again in the future. I blame the owners, they have bred these horses with legs that cannot control the power they produce.  Maybe it is time to look into that side of racing.

J.



Nadal vs History


Where does Nadal rank in your mind? He is 28 years old and Roger Federer is about to turn 34. 
  • 14 Grand Slams tied with Sampras for second.
  • Roger Federer is still three ahead at 17 
    • (Nadal's medical issues may let Roger keep his record.)
  • Nadal 20 Finals 23 Semis and 27 Quarter finals in Grand Slams  
  • Federer has 24 Finals, 34 Semis and the incredible number of 41 quarter finals.

How do we rate greatness?

  1. Wins for sure
  2. Excellence in short time frame (The Koufax, Earl Campbell rule)
  3. What role does the talent of the competition play.


  • Wins he is second to only Federer in Grand Slam events.In the 33 head to head matches, Nadal has dominated at 23-10 and 9-2 in Grand Slam events. Age does play a role and Federer has won four Slams since he was Nadal's age. 
  • Excellence- They are basically the same players in terms of excellence based on age.
  • Competition- I side with Nadal, because I think Federer played Roddick and aging players like Agassi when he won 9 in 4 years. 
Greatest Tennis Player Ever?  I have no idea, but I like watching Nadal more than either Federer or Sampras.  

The lack of the American competition because of the diminutive role tennis plays in America really hurts the game. 

J. 

Wednesday, June 4, 2014

Puig at 1 Year

Yesterday marked the 1 year anniversary of the debut of Yasiel Puig in the big leagues.  The tally:

158 games
193 hits
37 doubles
5 triples
30 homers
82 RBI
.328 BA
.406 OBP
.560 Slug %
.967 OPS

The totals for Mike Trout in his rookie campaign:

139 games
182 hits
27 doubles
8 triples
30 homers
83 RBI
.326 BA
.399 OBP
.564 Slug %
.963 OPS

These are remarkably similar numbers.  The one big difference is Trout had 49 steals, Puig 16.  Trout goes 6'2"/230 and Puig goes 6'3"/235.  Puig is 9 months older.

S