Alabama-LSU

All week I have tried to decide how to comment on what I expect to happen. I
even did a poll at work from people in La/Ms/Al to predict a winner.
LSU won the poll- 59%-41%  The People that picked LSU had a 4.5 point spread. Alabama supporters had the game at 6 points.  Either way, it seems to suggest a game decided on the last possession.

What I expect to happen.
1st Qtr.
Alabama comes out like a storm, Miles plays it safe to not lose it thinking that he can pound them into the 4th.
Ware has 11 carries for 21 yards.
2nd
LSU weathers the storm closes to a 7 point game.
Ford breaks one for 20plus.
3rd.
Bama adjustments give them 10 point lead.
Then LSU starts to find a rhythm.

4th
Turnover - LSU closes to 3 point game.
Bama drives to FG. Richardson is a beast, but can get a long one.
But because Saban will not throw it they miss out on TD and Miles takes over.
LSU drives to Tide 20yd line down 6.  2 minutes left. 
2 offensive penalties take away first and goal.
Drive stalls with less than a minute left.

Bama 30-24.

Breakdown:

Offense
LSU seems to be more diverse than Bama with the new offensive system.
Yes, Richardson is the best RB in America and I expect him to break a few 20yard runs and get over 100 yards.
But, I don't think you beat LSU by running the ball, you need big plays. Runs lead to FG's in this game and TD's win.
I feel like LSU has more big play possibilities for big plays, thus I give them an advantage.
LSU cannot score against Bama without the Big Play, there will be no wearing down either of these teams.
Talent wise, I think it is even overall and believe LSUs Oline is underrated just like Alabama WR's.
Can McCarron really have the experience to preform better than Lee in only his 9th start.  Unlikely.
He is more talented, but hasn't experience LSU defensive speed before.  Lee has the advantage.
Advantage - LSU.

Defense
I know that LSU is playing with a speed that we may never have seen outside of the NFL, but Alabama is just better on paper.  When I go through the statistical figures that Bama has put up, I am at a loss for words. No one can be this good in today's game of offensive spread formations.
 Arkansas had 209 total yards against this defense.  The Hogs had 2 first downs without a penalty in the 2nd half.
Ark average 485 yards a game without the Tide game.

LSU's defense has definitely played more explosive offenses than Alabama with Oregon and West Va and dominated these teams until they pulled ahead and gave up points.  The speed in the secondary should limit the Alabama passes to first downs instead of 40 yard TD's.   I still don't care much for the LSU LB's and think that besides Brocker that on 3rd and 2 the Bama power will push them out and keep the drives going.

Turnovers go to LSU, but they take chances and give up some big plays in the passing game.

Advantage: Bama

Special Teams: 
LSU- Punter and FG kicker have preformed under pressure.  Can a block punt change everything.
Advantage - LSU.

Coaching-
Its Saban, how can I not pick him,  the man made LSU a power for the first time in my life.
MIles has done a great job, but I know that Saban can adjust at halftime if LSU finds a hole

When the year started, I never expected LSU to be this good.
I hope the four leaf clover is in Miles back pocket.

j.