SB predictor. Does Defense Win

After a conversation with Jody and discussing the theory that "Defense always wins" in football.

I decided to test the data with the past 12 Super Bowls.
(This is only to predict the SB winner, not who will go to the game.)

I looked at:
Total Offenses, Defenses, Points scored and allowed, Differential of each, Ranking in each category vs each other based on regular season stats.

Higher ranked Defense in yards allowed. 6 of 12 winners.
Higher ranked Offensive yards 5 of 12 winners
Higher ranked in Offensive pts per game 6 of 12 winners
Higher ranked in fewest points allowed per game 8 of 12 winners.
Point Differential Points scored Points allowed. 9 of 12 winners.

Fewest Points allowed is the number 1 indicator.

This again brings up the Patiocheats and the filming of other teams signals.
They were the exception two the 3 times in point differential. The Rams win, and then a loss to the Giants after the NFL made them stop cheating.

The other exception was the Colts-Bears game.
A bit misleading with the Bears only scoring 26 offensive TD's all year.
The Colts scored 51 TD's that year, 19 rushing. The Colts defense was weak but Grossman and the Bears were horrible on offense.

If I had the time, I would check another 10years. But..
My guess would be that Defense is more important than Offense, but only in points allowed, the bend don't break theory.

It appears that point differential (points allowed vs points scored.)

Kind of seems obvious when you think about it.

j